The Fairer World Cup qualifiers have reached the halfway point, and the field at this summer’s finals is already taking shape.
Last time out, several major players fell and some new superpowers emerged in the African qualifiers. You can also check out the Oceanic and Asian qualifiers in the links provided.
16 more World Cup places will be filled today, as UEFA play host to the European qualifiers. With many leading names having switched their allegiances to other continents, get ready for some big surprises – and a couple of huge shocks!
THE QUALIFIERS: EUROPE
The dynamics of European international football might have changed dramatically. Some of the major powers have been weakened significantly with the losses of several key players.
Perhaps the worst devastation has happened in the Netherlands, who’ve lost most of their established stars to former Dutch colonies and various African nations. The Oranje barely qualified for Euro 2024 via the play-offs, and they’re in such dire straits that they’ve had to call up Millwall’s Zian Flemming and even bring back a 35-year-old Ricky van Wolfswinkel! They and their equally-devastated neighbours Belgium might well struggle to reach the World Cup.
Ranked 6th in the world at the start of this save, Croatia have become victims of their own successes. Midfield maestro Mateo Kovačić now plays for his birthplace in Austria, while Mario Pašalić and Josip Stanišić are only available to 15th-ranked Germany, who themselves are missing stars such as Antonio Rüdiger, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sané.
Despite their losses, Germany should have enough depth to remain competitive. So too should France, who crucially have kept Kylian Mbappé out of African hands. Portugal and Italy have each benefitted from South American additions like Marquinhos and Mauro Icardi respectively, while Paulo Dybala gives Poland a serious alternative to the ageing Robert Lewandowski up top.
England have lost many of their cosmopolitan talents – with captain Harry Kane among at least FIVE regulars defecting to the Republic of Ireland. Mind you, the Three Lions didn’t seem to miss them that much at the Euros. After defeating their old Irish friends in extra-time in the last 16, England went all the way to the Final, where Marcus Rashford and Reece James were among the scorers as they beat Ukraine 3-0! Maybe football is coming home after all?
Ukraine’s fairytale run included a shock win over Spain, who incredibly might have an even stronger squad than before! Thanks to their relatively lowly FIFA ranking (10th) and their generous citizenship rules, La Furia Roja are now able to call up several naturalised Argentines and Brazilians. They could in theory field an all-star front three of Vinícius Júnior, Lionel Messi AND Rodrygo… if Messi’s ageing legs don’t give up before the World Cup, that is. Everybody watch out.
FULL DISCLAIMER: I have used the in-game editor to try and keep Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Luka Modrić and a few other ageing superstars in the game for as long as possible. I will not force their nations to keep selecting them, but I want them to at least be available for the World Cup finals. As you’ll soon discover, though, things didn’t necessarily go as planned…
GROUP STAGE
Because the European qualifying format wasn’t confirmed until after FM24’s release, the group stage structure is a bit different from real-life. There are 10 groups – each comprising either five or six teams – and only the group winners qualify automatically, joined by the six best runners-up. There are NO play-offs.
GROUP A
After their Euro 2024 success, England boss Sir Gareth Southgate decided to stick around for one more World Cup after all. Now captained by 35-year-old model citizen Jordan Henderson, the Three Lions proceeded to do what they always do in the qualifiers – smash through all the weak teams, and then slip up when they first encounter a half-decent opponent.
That 1-1 draw in Austria meant that England couldn’t quite breathe easy. Meanwhile, neighbours Wales looked down and (almost) out after running into a rampant Christoph Baumgartner in Cardiff.
Despite their best efforts, Austria couldn’t keep up with the Three Lions. After a surprise home defeat to Georgia, Stefan Kuntz’s side were outclassed at Wembley by Trent Alexander-Arnold, who sent England through with a game to spare. Though Georgia won their final four matches, they had left it too late to leapfrog Austria into 2nd place.
England had qualified with ease, but how did Wales fare in the end? Well… ahem… they lost 2-1 in Liechtenstein and finished just one point off the bottom. So… not great.
GROUP B
Despite my best efforts to delay Cristiano Ronaldo’s inevitable retirement, FM wasn’t having any of it. After picking up a serious injury in December 2024, Cristiano hung up his boots anyway – ruling him out of the Fairer World Cup. Then again, he is a sportswashing pawn who admires Donald Trump and has a lengthy record of questionable behaviour towards women… so, morally, it’s probably for the best.
Portugal would probably have been fine without Ronaldo… but they were also without various players of African descent like Nuno Mendes, Rafael Leão and Danilo Pereira. And boy did they miss them. After picking up just two points from their first three games, Portugal appeared to have turned a corner in thumping Slovenia 4-1… but then they lost 1-0 in Albania, leaving them five points adrift of leaders Hungary.
Though Viktor Gyökeres has been surprisingly quiet up front for Hungary so far, the impossibly-handsome Fuller FM legend Dominik Szoboszlai had put the Magyars on track for their first World Cup since 1986. Their only loss in their first six matches had come against Slovenia, who – coincidentally – were also the only team to beat 2nd-placed Albania. And yet the Slovenes were down in 4th. Go figure.
Things would only get worse for Portugal. After Szoboszlai nicked two precious home points off them in October, their slim hopes of qualification were snuffed out by a Benjamin Šeško hat-trick for big-game specialists Slovenia in November.
Portugal had missed their first World Cup since 1998, and Marco Silva’s tenure as national team boss had gone as well as his time at Everton. Yes, he was even worse than Roberto Martínez.
However, Hungary would not be at the finals either. Albania had quietly gone about their business almost unnoticed until they leapfrogged the Magyars with a stunning 5-1 win, in which Armando Broja and FM24 wonderkid Nelson Weiper each bags a couple of goals. Albanian fans were weeping tears of joy when their qualification was secured with a final-day 3-0 win over Slovenia.
GROUP C
Well… it’s almost as if half the England team plays for the Republic of Ireland now! Channelling the spirit of Jack Charlton’s legendary Anglicised team from the 1990s, Ireland reeled off 28 goals in their first seven victorious performances – with a certain Mr Kane finding the net in every single match.
And so it looked like Belgium and Norway were battling it out for 2nd place. The Norwegians could have dealt a major blow when they led 3-0 in Brussels, only for the Red Devils to run rampant late on and draw 4-4. Their fates would surely come down to the rematch in Oslo in November.
Unsurprisingly, Ireland were one of the first European teams to book their tickets to North America. Kane led the way by finding the net 12 times – drawing his only blank away to Belgium. Though Ireland’s 100% record was blown apart by Norway on the final day, their 38-goal haul had sent a clear message that they would be a genuine force at the World Cup.
And to be fair, so too would Norway. Erling Haaland scored 11 goals himself, but perhaps the most crucial strikes came from Sivert Mannsverk, whose double against Belgium secured 2nd place and eliminated the 10-man Red Devils. There was no question that the prolific Scandinavians would advance as one of the best runners-up.
GROUP D
With Luka Modrić about to turn 40, and several of his team-mates having either retired or been poached by other countries, I honestly thought Croatia would struggle. They had other ideas.
Croatia won each of their first six games – and five were as comfortable as anything. The odd one out was arguably even more impressive, though, as they managed to overturn a 2-0 half-time deficit and eventually beat Israel 3-2!
Bosnia & Herzegovina – whose squad had at least two notable ex-Croats in centre-half Josip Šutalo and centre-forward Ante Budimir – took four points off Sweden to move themselves into 2nd place. Having lost both Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, the beleaguered Swedes were being forced to play winger Jesper Karlsson as a makeshift striker… which wasn’t ideal.
Group D’s top two faced off in a high-intensity derby in Osijek. The Bosnians led 2-0 midway through the first-half, but Croatia pegged them back before the break. A scrappy second half followed – decided by an unfortunate own goal from melted Barbie doll Domagoj Vida. Bosnia had snatched a precious 3-2 away win, and the Croats had to pick themselves off the floor.
Sweden faded away after a narrow loss to Croatia and limped home in 3rd place. Neither the play-offs nor Graham Potter could save them in this universe.
Meanwhile, the former Yugoslav republics quickly picked up enough points to ensure that they would be at the World Cup. Now the only question was who would take the bragging rights of finishing top. Croatia still sat on the summit until they lost 3-0 to Israel, allowing Bosnia to leapfrog them by dismantling Gibraltar.
GROUP E
Fullerstradamus strikes again. Just like Croatia, the Netherlands made a mockery of my predictions by easily sweeping past everyone in their group. New captain Matthijs de Ligt was delighted after five straight wins – including an impressive 3-1 in Ukraine, who led the race for 2nd.
I was also very surprised with Kosovo, but for all the wrong reasons. Granit Xhaka + Andi Zeqiri + Adnan Januzaj = ZERO points from their first five games. Results would get better later on, but their World Cup dream was already dead.
The Netherlands got a rude awakening in Astana, when they were humbled 2-0 by Kazakhstan. But hey, a shock result like that can happen to the best teams… and Scotland. The Dutch followed that up with a miserable goalless stalemate against Ukraine, meaning their qualification was still up in the air…
…until they finally pulled themselves back together on the final day. A 2-0 win in North Macedonia got the job done for Ronald Koeman’s tangoed terrors, while Ukraine halted a mini-resurgence from Kosovo to follow them into the finals.
GROUP F
Looks like Thomas Tuchel will be going to the World Cup after all – as Germany manager, no less. Everyone’s favourite cuddly Bavarian led ‘Die Mannschaft’ to an impressive winning streak to put them in total control of Group F. Kai Havertz had been in particularly ridiculous form in the first half of their campaign.
Unfortunately for my friends north of the border, Scotland were – just like at Euro 2020 – suffering from a severe case of Post-Patrik Schick Traumatic Stress Disorder. Long-time head coach Steve Clarke had also jacked it in, leaving Henning Berg in charge of a very un-Scottish Tartan Army featuring Mathew Ryan, Tino Livramento and Harvey Barnes. Even ol’ Ronnie Browne couldn’t rouse this lot up.
Germany didn’t need any rousing up. They went on to win every group match by at least two goals, with Brentford bench-warmer Kevin Schade even chipping in a few goals in the closing stages. Of the major European powers, they seemed to have the strongest depth to replace their Africa-bound stars.
Scotland obviously didn’t qualify, but Czechia perhaps should have. They were ultimately frozen out after a 3-1 defeat in Iceland, prompting every Czech fan to turn into that drunk Scotsman at Edinburgh Airport.
GROUP G
I think I’ve found the cure to Italy’s World Cup blues – just give them Gabriel Martinelli, Mauro Icardi and Marcus Thuram up front! The new-look Azzurri led their group after getting to a flying start, halted only by a tense 1-1 draw in Poland.
Poland looked pretty comfortable in 2nd place, even if they still had a couple of question marks in defence. Chelsea’s 7th-choice goalkeeper Gabriel Słonina fluffed his lines in a surprise defeat to Armenia, and centre-back James Tarkowski was… well, he was James Tarkowski.
It’s usually at this point in a tournament cycle that Italy do something stupid, like confiscating their players’ video game consoles – or appointing Gianpiero Ventura as head coach. Not this time. Aside from a brief bout of hiccups in Finland, Luciano Spalletti’s squadra had no problems during the run-in. Poland also had a couple of routine wins at home, meaning their final-day trip to Rome would determine top spot.
In the end, Italy’s fluid passing game was far too strong for Poland. They dominated from start to finish, with West Ham icon Gianluca Scamacca putting the seal on a 3-0 win that saw them through in 1st place. Regardless, the Poles were also celebrating at full-time, because they had done enough to qualify as one of the best runners-up.
GROUP H
And so we meet Spain’s all-stars. Rodrygo, Messi, Vinícius, Bruno Guimarães and the Hernández twins – all beefing up what was already a pretty stacked squad. They were all set to cruise through the qualifiers without having to break sweat…
…until Joachim Löw and his sweaty armpits arrived in Madrid, where he led Türkiye to a sensational 3-0 win! Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s outstanding double had well and truly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
With Greece also in steady form, there was a very real possibility that Spain – perhaps the strongest team in world football – might not even qualify for the Fairer World Cup! They had four matches left to set the record straight.
The top two both went to Greece in October. While Türkiye left Athens with a 2-1 victory, Spain could only muster a goalless draw. That left La Furia Roja needing a win – and a BIG win – in Istanbul to put themselves through as group winners.
It was a drab, defensive 0-0, but it didn’t matter. Türkiye had qualified undefeated, and Spain’s dominant performance against the weaker nations saw them through as one of the top runners-up. That was more than could be said of another UEFA superpower…
GROUP I
Though France were probably expected to win Group I, Denmark were actually going about their business pretty nicely. Even without their now-retired goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel, they still managed to win their first four games before a creditable 1-1 draw in Saint-Denis.
Meanwhile, Les Bleus kicked off the post-Didier Deschamps era with a couple of expected wins. Then they stumbled to a goalless draw in Romania before slipping up again when they faced the Danes. But hey, they’re France. Surely they’ll bounce back… right?
Non. Things only went from bad to worse when an injured Mbappé missed France’s October qualifiers. First, Les Bleus drew 1-1 at home to Montenegro. Then, they drew 1-1 AGAIN in München – handing Belarus just their second point of the campaign.
Then came November, and a must-win home game against Romania. Thomas Lemar looked to have put them on course for a vital 1-0 victory…
…until, in the 89th minute, came an Axel Disasi disaster, and ANOTHER 1-1 draw.
France’s FIFTH draw in a row put them on the brink of elimination. The pièce de résistance – or the coup de grâce, if you will – came when they were bludgeoned 4-1 in Denmark, who had breezed through as group winners.
And so the guillotine came down on France… but I can’t really explain it. This French team wasn’t just Mbappé and a bunch of randos. They still had Lemar! Jean-Clair Todibo! Benjamin Pavard! Illan Meslier in goal… oh, er, yeah, that might have been a problem.
GROUP J
The final group was a tight affair involving four fairly evenly-matched teams… and Lithuania. Switzerland would have been clear favourites before having most of their diverse talents stripped from them, but that wasn’t the case now. Case in point: a 3-0 defeat in Slovenia, where the Swiss rolled over after racking up just 0.25 xG.
With Switzerland, Slovakia, Serbia and a resurgent Bulgaria all taking points off each other, it was hard to predict who would come out on top. Serbia had the most ground to make up at the halfway stage, having struggled to recover from blundering a 2-0 lead in Trnava after conceding TWO Slovakian goals in stoppage time.
Bulgaria’s dreams of a Stoichkov-esque 90s revival ultimately faded in the second half, but the other three teams were right in it. Switzerland kept their hopes alive with a fantastic comeback from 2-0 down against Slovakia, though they still needed to win in Serbia to have any chance of going through.
Sadly for Switzerland, that didn’t come to pass. Serbia beat them in the end… but not by the two-goal margin the Orlovi needed to leapfrog them into 2nd. That meant Slovakia won the group without needing to beat Lithuania, though they did so anyway.
2ND-PLACED TEAMS
There’s final confirmation of the six teams qualifying as runners-up. Croatia, Norway, Spain, Poland and Ukraine always looked pretty safe, while Austria pipped Hungary to the final spot on goal difference.
And just look at how hopeless France were! The 2018 winners and 2022 runners-up have missed out altogether in 2026!
UEFA QUALIFYING STATS
Come back again next time, when we visit North and Central America and the Caribbean for the CONMEBOL qualifiers. The excitement is ramping up as the Fairer World Cup continues…
…but not for you, Kylian. Sorry.
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