It’s time to resolve a debate that has been raging across the Football Manager for years. Are English teams – and English players, for that matter – too overpowered?
Some people argue that Premier League players are rated too highly compared to their counterparts in La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. They often see PL clubs winning more Champions Leagues than anyone else, England competing for major international trophies… and Callum Wilson becoming the best non-Norwegian striker in world football.
Sports Interactive are based in London, and a large portion of their research team is English. So is there any substance behind these claims that they overrate English teams and players? Are there some valid explanations for their success in FM? Or this simply a myth that has been blown out of proportion?
I’ll be using Football Manager 2021 to try and answer these questions. This article’s gonna be quite a long one… but if you love data and charts, you’re in for a treat.
ARE PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS OVERRATED?
At the end of every year, The Guardian publishes a list of the 100 best male footballers in the world. Their list is collated by a judging panel of over 200 football figures (i.e. journalists, coaches, and current or former players) from around 70 nations. This is their selection for 2020.
There is no easy way to find what Football Manager considers to be the world’s best players (though the GOAL 50 ranking list is a recent addition to FM). The best I can do on FM21 is open up the editor and find the 100 best players on the original November 2020 database, sorted by Current Ability and World Reputation.
Both lists have their quirks and differences. FM21’s top 100 players include several global superstars who in 2020 were either past their peak (Gerard Piqué) or had endured a disappointing year (Paul Pogba)… and then there’s Wojciech Szczęsny. The Guardian’s top 100 leans a lot more towards wonderkids (e.g. Alphonso Davies, Ansu Fati), as well as mid-career breakouts (e.g. Lucas Ocampos, Robin Gosens).
English-based players make up around a third of both lists. There are 32 Premier League players on FM21’s top list, compared to 35 on The Guardian’s list.
La Liga is the second-biggest league when it comes to elite players, but the gap between England and Spain is actually far narrower on FM. While 28 of FM’s leading players come from La Liga, that number drops sharply to 21 on The Guardian’s list.
It’s no surprise that most of the top players grace either of these two leagues. England and Spain have effectively been battling out with one another at the top of the UEFA Association rankings since the mid-2000s. The Spaniards took top spot from their English rivals in 2013 and stayed there until 2021, when the Premier League reigned supreme once again.
ARE ENGLISH PLAYERS OVERRATED?
Okay… so what about English players in general, regardless of where they play their football? Many FMers have observed that England often do well in World Cups and European Championships for at least the first few seasons. But are they overrated compared to other nations?
Let’s go back to those top 100 player lists, and sort the players by nationality. There are seven Englishmen among FM21’s top 100 players – but there are actually nine on The Guardian’s, who include Marcus Rashford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in their elite.
England isn’t even one of the three most-represented nations on either list. Spain lead the way on FM21 with 12 players, followed by Brazil and Germany. Meanwhile, there are a dozen Germans on The Guardian’s top 100, with Brazil and France also reaching double figures.
Now, here are the FIFA World Rankings as of July 2020, which show England in 4th place. FIFA’s rankings have received a lot of criticism in the past, and rightly so. Since the 2018 World Cup, though, they have been based on the Elo rating system, which is mainly used for rating chess players, but has also been shown to work quite well in football.
The World Football Elo Ratings is an alternative rating system, which as the name suggest also uses Elo. The only major difference between the two systems is that WFER factors in the goal differential in matches, whereas FIFA does not. As of August 2020, England were actually down in 12th place according to WFER.
To get an idea of which national teams may be overrated/underrated on FM, I’ve loaded up the original FM21 database again and recorded the Current Ability scores of the top 22 players from 26 top nations.
I’ve then compiled two ranking lists. The first is based on the average CA of each nation’s best 11 players. The second takes the average CA of their top 22 players – but excludes the top three – to measure their overall depth without considering any potential outliers.
Interestingly, England’s squad puts them around the top five – way ahead of their Elo ranking, and just below their FIFA ranking of 4th. But is it such a shock to see them so high? After all, they did get to the 2018 World Cup Semi Finals and the Euro 2020 Final.
Even so, the Three Lions are still comfortably weaker than France, Germany and Brazil in terms of CA. They also have less squad depth than Spain, while Argentina also rank higher than England until you take out their top three players (Messi, Agüero and Dybala).
One could argue that the most overrated nation on FM21 is actually Germany, whose best XI appears to be the 2nd-best in the world behind France’s, despite their relatively lowly rankings. Then again, the Germans do have plenty of quality, even if they don’t have quite as much depth as the French or Spanish. I’d say this is more an indictment of Joachim Löw’s mismanagement during the final years of his tenure.
Of course, international football is littered with stories like Denmark at Euro 2020 (and Wales at Euro 2016) showing that you don’t need a team full of top players to go deep into tournaments. Spirit, teamwork and strategy can take you a long way.
ARE PREMIER LEAGUE TEAMS OVERRATED?
Now, how do you rate the best club teams in European football? UEFA uses a club coefficient system, ranking each club based on their results in European competitions over the past five seasons. However, this doesn’t factor in teams’ domestic results or the relative strength of their opponents, and recent form is no more important than their results four years ago.
This is UEFA’s club coefficient ranking after the 2019/2020 season. Real Madrid are flying high in 2nd, thanks to their three consecutive victories between 2016 and 2018, which still carried as much weight as their early exits from the next two editions. Reaching two Europa League Semis in the past five years put Shakhtar Donetsk in 12th – only two spots below Liverpool.
ClubElo.com has an alternative Elo rating system which rates over 500 top-level European clubs based on domestic and continental results. Its rankings at the start of September 2020 are a good indicator of where the best teams stood at that point, with Bayern Munich top, Liverpool 2nd, PSG 5th, and Real Madrid outside the top five.
To get an idea of which teams may be overrated/underrated on FM, I’ve looked at each of those clubs’ senior players (including loanees, but excluding players loaned to other clubs) and recorded their Current Ability scores. Again, I’ve then taken the average CA score for each team’s best 11 players, and then the average for their best 22 (excluding the top three).
Interestingly, Barcelona appear to have the strongest XI in FM21 – but when Lionel Messi and their other key men are taken out of the equation, they drop to 6th to squad depth. By contrast, Real Madrid don’t rely on one or two megastars beefing up their average CA, and they have a well-balanced squad which puts them top on that particular chart.
Liverpool and Manchester City are jostling for 2nd and 3rd, which would line up with their ClubElo rankings. The major London clubs all have teams whose average ability is ahead of their Elo… but the opposite is true for Manchester United, whose best XI and squad depth are actually four places worse.
Bayern Munich top both the UEFA coefficients and the ClubElo standings, but seem to only have the 5th-best team in Europe. Juventus seem more overrated by comparison, though having a certain Portuguese maestro no doubt helps.
I also measured the teams’ average ratings on four hidden attributes that play a big role in succeeding at the highest level – Consistency, Important Matches, Professionalism, and Pressure. These are my findings:
Note that Liverpool are the only team who rank in the top five on all four categories. Yep, that’s a team who’ve recently won a Champions League and a Premier League. City are also a consistent side who thrive in big games, but they do occasionally struggle under pressure.
Chelsea have some pretty good mental attributes too, and Tottenham’s team is professional, even if their record in important matches is lacking. And as an Arsenal fan, I can tell you that SI have got my team’s abysmal mentality right down to a tee!
Manchester United are an interesting case. FM does accurately reflect United’s ridiculous inconsistency, though their other mental attributes are pretty high. While I can understand why Pogba et al would enjoy the big occasions, I’m not too sure why this team ranks 3rd on professionalism.
Speaking of the Devils, that brings me onto my next question…
ARE MANCHESTER UNITED OVERRATED?
One specific complaint from FMers is that Manchester United are always “overpowered”. How is it possible that English football’s poster boys of arrogance and excess – particularly since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement – could suddenly return to their all-conquering glory days in FM?
Pretty much all the ‘Big Six’ Premier League teams have been accused of being “overrated” on FM. In any given month, you will find loads of tweets and forum posts claiming that Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or Tottenham are ‘OP’, depending on which major team is currently out of form. Manchester City don’t get it as bad (understandably), but their red rivals are THE kings of this trope.
Every FM save produces different results. I’ve had careers where City have become unstoppable forces, and others where they’ve slipped into mid-table and given Pep Guardiola his P45. Pretty much anything goes once you click ‘Continue’ for the first time.
So, to get an idea of which teams consistently fare the best, you would need to constantly run the same season over and over again. But only a layabout with far too much spare time would simulate one Premier League season 50 times…
I’ve simulated one Premier League season 50 times. I created a FM21 save file with just England’s top division loaded and then holidayed until June 2021, recording the top four PL teams and the Champions League Finalists each time.
The first 25 simulations were done using the ‘Quick Sim’ match engine. The last 25 were done with all PL matches (and the main stages of the CL) set to ‘Full Detail’.
Unsurprisingly, Liverpool and Manchester City are way out in front, winning 38 of the 50 league titles between them. They were also remarkably consistent, with Liverpool only finishing outside the Champions League places once, and City twice.
Interestingly, the Citizens won 13 of their league titles on the quick sims, while Liverpool were champions 15 times when all PL matches were simulated in full. This seems to support the meta that Jürgen Klopp’s gegenpressing was more effective than Pep Guardiola’s tiki-taka on the FM21 match engine… but that’s not the point I’m trying to make today.
Manchester United won six titles – three each on the quick and full sims. Interestingly, their mean position on the ‘Quick Sims’ was 3.56 (between 3rd and 4th), and they had several seasons where they finished 5th, 6th or even 7th. But when I simmed the matches in ‘Full Detail’, their mean position rose to 2.64, and they never finished outside the top four.
Given that this United team finished runners-up in the actual 2020/2021 PL season (albeit a distant 2nd behind their noisy neighbours), their moderate level of success doesn’t strike me as being too odd. The only other teams to win the league were Arsenal (I wish!) and Chelsea, while Tottenham had one runners-up finish (typical Spurs). Wolves and Leicester each gatecrashed the CL party only once.
No huge surprises in the Champions League either. 2019 winners Liverpool and 2020 champs Bayern Munich were the most successful teams in my simulations, followed by perennial challengers Real Madrid, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain – the latter two of which have never won the title in reality.
Manchester United were joint-6th in terms of CL wins, lifting Ol’ Big Ears four times – as often as Atlético Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Juventus, and twice more than Barcelona. Chelsea never repeated their actual 2021 Final success in my simulations, probably because Frank Lampard was still their manager.
This United team winning a European title in FM probably isn’t a surprise. Let’s not forget they went all the way to the Final of the Europa League, which they probably should’ve won if they’d taken their chances against Villarreal – or if David De Gea had learnt how to save penalties.
But the Champions League? Again, it’s not that bizarre in a knockout competition, where the best teams could eliminate one another, while a less-fancied side hits a hot streak (and potentially takes advantage of an easier draw or two). After all, Tottenham went to the Final in 2019 after beating Manchester City and then Ajax on away goals.
AND FINALLY…
In that last chapter, I simmed just the first season 50 times. But what about long-term saves, where Manchester United – and other English clubs – can often become very successful over multiple seasons?
[Sigh] It’s time to mention the elephant in the room.
These are the richest clubs in Europe on the default FM21 database, sorted by their turnover at the start of a new save. Notice how the ‘Big Six’ English clubs are all in the top 15 (no other country has more than two clubs), and that United have the 3rd-highest turnover, behind only PSG and City?
A deeper look into their finances shows that United make around £200million per year in sponsorships alone (only PSG get more money from their commercial partners). City, Chelsea and Arsenal also make over £100million annually through sponsors, while Liverpool aren’t far off. That’s before you even consider prize money, let alone the huge TV money that Premier League clubs get every year!
With all that in mind, should we be surprised when English teams perform well in European and international competitions? The Premier League has more major clubs capable of winning the Champions League than the other top leagues – and those clubs have more money too.
It’s possible that the PL could enjoy a period of dominance similar to La Liga’s golden era between 2009 and 2018, when Spanish clubs won seven Champions Leagues and six Europa Leagues over a decade. After all, we’ve already seen two all-English CL Finals in the last three seasons, and at least one English team has featured in four of the last six EL deciders.
I would expect England to be the superpower of European football for the first five years or so of a new FM save. Beyond that, who knows? Perhaps Germany or Italy could return to prominence. Perhaps some tycoons will buy up PSG’s main rivals and take Ligue 1 to the next level. Or perhaps the status quo will remain intact.
So, do I think Premier League players are overrated – or English players, for that matter? No, I don’t think they are. Certainly not to a ridiculous degree.
Doing research for FM is not an easy task, and not just because players need to be portrayed realistically in the match engine. The very subjective nature of this field makes it impossible to please everyone, as we all have different opinions on which players are the best and why. Besides, how can anyone prove that Jamie Vardy is a better finisher than Timo Werner… or that Aymeric Laporte is more composed than Dayot Upamecano?
English teams are successful in Europe in real-life (okay… maybe not Leicester), so it’s natural that they will usually perform well in FM too. But with the likes of Bayern, PSG and Real Madrid also having strong teams, there’s hardly a lack of competition for the continental trophies.
As for United or Arsenal winning a Premier League title in 2023? Okay, so they haven’t won the league since 2013 and 2004 respectively, and they’ve barely threatened Liverpool or City at the top in the past few years. But just because that’s not likely to change any time soon doesn’t make it impossible – and it shouldn’t be impossible in FM either.
In my view, the first few seasons of a Football Manager save should reflect the present and the near-future, not replicate the recent past. I think the game does a pretty good job of reflecting how strong English football is now, and how that is likely to stay so over the coming years.
Those are my thoughts on one of FM’s biggest myths. If there’s anything you’d like to add to this, feel free to share it by dropping a comment below – or tweeting me @Fuller_FM.
You can also download my data spreadsheets below. (A couple of these spreadsheets includes several hidden attribute ratings from the FM21 database, so if you’re still playing that game and don’t want any ‘spoilers’, you’ve been warned.)
Player Rankings (Top 100 players in FM21 & The Guardian)
Fuller FM 
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